【摘要】 在国内国际双循环的新发展格局下，研究国内外股票市场的联动性问题。首先选取2019年1月1日到2022年5月5范围内的沪深300指标作为内陆地区股市的代表，在对比美股标普500指数的同时，引入中国特别行政区香港恒生指数作为另一研究对象。然后构造SV-TVP-VAR模型，并引入时变参数对不同时间的联动性进行分析。最后运用OxMetrics6.0及Stata15.0等软件编程求解，通过分析不同时期和不同时点的脉冲响应图，得出内陆股市、香港股市以及美国股市之间短期存在关联性而长期无明显关联趋势的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Studying the linkage problem of domestic and foreign stock markets under the new development paradigm of domestic and international dual circulation. The article selects the CSI 300 index ranging from January 1st, 2019 to May 5th, 2022 as the representative of inland stock market. While comparing the S&P 500 index of US stocks, the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong is introduced as another research object. The SV-TVP-VAR model is constructed and time-varying parameters are introduced to analyze the linkage at different times. The software such as OxMetrics6.0 and Stata15.0 is used to solve the problem, by analyzing the impulse response plot over different periods and at different points of time, it is concluded that there is a short-term correlation among the inland stock market, Hong Kong stock market and the US stock market but without a significant trend of correlation in the long term.更多还原