【摘要】 自从OpenAI在2022年11月推出其生成式人工智能(AIGC, artificial intelligence generative content,也有人使用generative AI)产品——ChatGPT后,整个世界都为之颠覆.生成式人工智能主要有两个主流:大型语言模型(LLM,large language model)和扩散模型(diffusion model),新的应用和研究每天都在加速发表.在本文中,我们首先对大型语言模型表现出来的智能水平提出了一个严肃的问题:它是否真的拥有像普通人的智能能力一样的通用人工智能(AGI, artificial general intelligence)能力?在本文中,我首先提出了一个重要的假说:作为一个封闭的系统,通过一个大型的语言模型被设计成表示和存储人类的巨大知识和智能的能力和行为,并配备了最高的价值标准,即模型必须符合人类的价值,但大型语言模型内部结构和性质并没有显示其拥有通用人工智能能力.然而,作为一个开放的系统,一旦我们输入一些隐含人类知识和智能的格式化文本,我们就会突然发现,大型语言模型的输出显示出某些人类智能和行为的特征.其中格式化的输入文本被称为提示(prompt),提示的智能程度越高,模型的智能输出就越好.换句话说,大型语言模型拥有某种以prompt提示为条件的通用人工智能AGI能力.经济学研究和其他社会科学研究如政治、历史、语言学等包括了最复杂的社会形态和人类最深刻的思想,因此本文试图通过总结其他研究者最新的研究成果来探讨大语言模型的通用人工智能是事实还是错觉?以及大语言模型其他经济功能和效用,对于这个模型的类通用人工智能的能力,我们总结这些研究学者的最新研究成果,包括大语言模型的智商水平,生成式人工智能的产业经济学,生成式人工智能下的计算社会科学研究,大语言模型的商业决策制定,经济学和其他社会科学,以及虛拟生成式人工智能经济学家的范式研究等问题.更多还原

【Abstract】 Since OpenAI launched its artificial intelligence generative content(AIGC)product—ChatGPT on November 2022, the whole world has turned upside down.The AIGC mainly come two main streams: Large language models(LLMs) and diffusion models. New application and research publish daily in an accelerated way. In this paper, we first raise a serious question over LLMs: Does intelligent ability generated from LLMs really owns general artificial intelligence(AGI, artificial general intelligence) ability like ordinary people’s intelligence ability doing things?In this paper, I first make an important hypothesis: As a closed system, through a large language model(LLM) has been designed to represent, store human’s huge knowledge and intelligence’s ability and behavior, equipped with the highest value standard that the model must align to human value, but the LLM model doesn’t demonstrate its AGI ability. However, as an opened system, once we input some formatted text with implicit human’s knowledge and intelligence, then we suddenly find that output of the LLM model show natures of certain human’s intelligence and behavior. The formatted input text is called a prompt. The higher intelligent prompt is, the better intelligent output of the model will be. In other words, the LLM models own some kind of AGI ability conditioned on prompt.Economics research and other social science research such as politics, history,and linguistics include the most complex social forms and the deepest human minds,so in this paper, we try to explore whether AGI-like general AI for large language models LLMs is a fact or an illusion by summarizing the latest research results of other researchers? For this model’s AGI-like general AI capabilities, we summarize the latest research results of these research scholars, including issues such as IQ levels of large language models, AIGC industrial economics, computational social science research under AIGC, business decision making, and virtual AIGC economist paradigm research in economics and other social sciences.更多还原