【摘要】 集聚效应是加快城市化进程、推动创新与技术发展的重要驱动因素之一。通过对我国300余个城市近20年人口集聚水平的变迁分析发现，伴随着人口流动与人口集聚水平提升，整体上城市间的人均GDP差距收窄，分布更为均衡；对人口集聚水平与产出效率间的规律探索显示，人口密度、就业密度与产出效率存在较为明显的正相关关系。为了更全面地衡量我国城市化水平，将“人口稠密率”指标作为对城镇化率评价的重要补充，进而将“人口稠密率”纳入经济增长预测模型，对2022—2030年不变价GDP增速进行预测，结果显示2022—2030年我国GDP年均复合增速约在5.03%左右。从空间分布深度挖掘人口集聚红利，协同驱动城市发展和乡村振兴，是新发展格局下实现高质量发展的关键点。因此，要逐步打破市场分割，提升生产要素的空间配置效率；协调大城市和中小城市的发展，充分发挥核心城市的带动和辐射作用；增强城乡区域发展协调性，处理好城市“新二元结构”问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The agglomeration effect is one of the important driving factors to accelerate the process of urbanization and promote the development of innovation and technology. Through the analysis of the changes in the population agglomeration level of more than 300 cities in China in the past 20 years, it is found that with the increase of population mobility and population agglomeration level, the gap in per capita GDP between cities has narrowed and the distribution has become more balanced. Based on the exploration of the law between the level of population agglomeration and output efficiency, it is shown that there is a relatively obvious positive correlation between population density, employment density and output efficiency. In order to more comprehensively measure the level of urbanization in China, the “population density rate” index is used as an important supplement to the evaluation of the urbanization rate, and then the “population density rate” is incorporated into the economic growth forecast model. This paper predicts the constant price GDP growth rate from 2022 to 2030, and the results show that the compound annual growth rate of China’s GDP from 2022 to 2030 is about 5.03%. Digging out the dividends of population agglomeration from the perspective of spatial distribution and synergistically driving urban development and rural revitalization are the key points to achieve high-quality development under the new development pattern. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually break the market segmentation, improve the spatial allocation efficiency of production factors; coordinate the development of large cities and small and medium-sized cities, and give full play to the driving and radiating effects of core cities. It is also necessary to enhance the coordination of urban and rural regional development, and deal with the problem of urban “new dual structure”.更多还原