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商品本位与信用本位的选择:金融市场视角下的法币改革
The Choice between Fiat and Commodity Standards:A Financial Market Perspective on China’s 1935 Currency Reform
【摘要】 本文从金融市场视角研究了法币改革的背景和经济影响。基于“南京十年”期间的资产价格高频数据,我们发现,与银本位相比,信用本位下不仅短期利率更加平稳,长期利率也大幅下降了,并且利率行为变化时点与法币改革吻合。这表明管理得当的信用本位不仅在稳定金融市场方面明显优于商品本位,而且在稳定长期通胀预期方面也并不逊色。这有助于认识货币政策对经济行为的影响,并为货币本位选择问题提供了新的经验证据。
【Abstract】 Based on the high-frequency dataset of asset prices during the Nanjing Decade, we examine the dynamics of interest rates and reinterpret the economic causes and consequences of China’s 1935 currency reform. We find that short-term interest rates were more stable and long-term interest rates were lower under fiat standard. These results show that a fiat standard may function better than commodity standard not only in terms of stabilizing financial markets, but in terms of stabilizing inflation expectations. This paper provides empirical evidences on the impact of monetary policy on economic behavior.
- 【文献出处】 经济学(季刊) ,China Economic Quarterly , 编辑部邮箱 ,2023年01期
- 【分类号】F822.9
- 【下载频次】32