【摘要】 文章构建了多国多部门贸易网络模型，并基于中国产品出口贸易数据实证检验了国际贸易网络演化对中国出口韧性的影响。研究发现，伙伴国贸易网络地位提升对中国出口贸易韧性具有正外部性。机制检验表明，伙伴国贸易网络地位提升能够平抑需求波动、扩大进口规模，间接增强中国出口韧性；但受市场竞争效应影响，伙伴国贸易网络地位与中国出口韧性总体呈现出“倒U型”关系。这意味着推动全球贸易网络复杂化、均衡化发展有利于重塑中国对外贸易格局，提升中国出口韧性。异质性分析结果显示，非核心国家、发展中国家和“一带一路”参与国贸易网络地位提升更有助于增强中国出口韧性，伙伴国贸易网络地位提升对中间品、低技术产品和比较优势产品出口韧性的积极作用更为明显。文章建议通过高水平对外开放促进全球贸易网络深度发展，重点提升“一带一路”国际贸易网络的影响力，以此为中国外贸长期稳定增长创造良好外部环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 A diversified and stable international trade pattern is necessary to ensure steady and high-quality growth in foreign trade. This paper constructs a multi-country and multi-sector trade network model and empirically tests the impact of international trade network evolution on China’s export resilience based on the export data of China’s products. It is found that the improvement of the trade network centrality of trade partners has a positive externality for China’s export resilience. The mechanism tests show that the improvement of the trade network centrality of trade partners can suppress demand fluctuations,expand import scale,and indirectly enhance China’s export resilience. However,influenced by market competition effects,the relationship between partners’ trade network centrality and China’ s export resilience generally presents an inverted U-shape. It means that promoting the complex and balanced development of the global trade network is conducive to reshaping China’s foreign trade pattern and enhancing China’s export resilience. The heterogeneity analyses show that improving the trade network centrality of non-core countries,developing countries,and the countries along the " Belt and Road" is more conducive to enhancing China’s export resilience. The improvement of the trade network centrality of trade partners has a more apparent positive effect on the export resilience of intermediate,low-technology,and comparative advantage products. It is suggested to promote the in-depth development of the global trade network through pursuing high-level opening up and enhance the influence of the " Belt and Road" international trade network to create a good external environment for permanent and stable growth of China’s foreign trade.更多还原