【摘要】 产出与需求不确定是疫苗供应链面临的重要挑战.本研究构建由一个疫苗制造商和一个疫苗零售商(疾控中心和接种单位)组成的三阶段博弈模型，重点分析了疫苗制造商的最优投入决策，以及供应链成员的定价和采购策略.在此基础上，引入供应链契约来提升疫苗供应链对不确定环境的响应能力.研究表明，合理的补贴契约和期权契约设计均能够改进疫苗供应链成员之间的协作机制，降低产出与需求不确定带来的影响，实现供应链性能的帕累托改进，保证疫苗的高效供应.更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, the vaccine supply chain faces great challenges from yield and demand uncertainty. This paper constructs a three-stage game model to describe the competition between a vaccine manufacturer and a vaccine retailer(Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and community). The optimal input quantity decision of vaccine manufacturer under yield and demand uncertainty, as well as the pricing and procurement strategies of supply chain members in deterministic environment are analyzed. The subsidy contract and the option contract are introduced to improve the performance of the vaccine supply chain, respectively. The result shows that the reasonable design of both contracts can improve the cooperation mechanism between the members of the vaccine supply chain, reduce the impact of yield and demand uncertainty, realize a Pareto improvement of the supply chain performance, and ensure the effective supply of the vaccine.更多还原