【摘要】 利用1981—2019年逐日气象资料，按照行业标准《小麦干热风灾害等级》(QX/T 82—2019)规定，应用M-K检验、小波分析及空间插值等方法，分析了干热风发生的时间突变性、周期性变化规律及空间分布特征。结果表明：39年来，山东省冬小麦干热风以轻度发生为主，随时间变化呈现出先减少后增加的趋势，2013年后干热风年平均发生时间显著增加，2018年后干热风发生区域显著扩大。干热风时间强度和空间强度的第一主振荡周期为30 a时间尺度，变化周期为10 a,第二主振荡周期为10 a时间尺度，变化周期为3 a;潍坊、淄博等地为干热风的强发区，泰安、济宁、聊城东部及青岛地区为弱发生区。预计2021—2050年在30 a尺度上，干热风发生以10 a为周期，呈现“减弱—增强—减弱”的规律，10 a尺度上呈现3 a小周期的“减弱—增强—减弱”波动。更多还原

【Abstract】 By using the daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2019 of Shandong Province as well as the methods of Mann-Kenddall, wavelet and spatial interpolation, this article analyzes the time mutation, periodic variation and spatial distribution characteristics of dry-hot wind according to the meteorological industry standards of “Disaster grade of dry-hot wind for wheat”(QX/T82—2019). The results show: in the past 39 years, the dry-hot wind of winter wheat in Shandong Province occurred mainly at some mild degrees, and it had a trend of decreasing first and then increasing with time. After 2013, the average annual occurrence time of dry-hot wind increased significantly, and the regions affected by dry-hot wind expanded distinctly after 2018. The first main oscillation period of the temporal intensity and spatial intensity of dry-hot wind was in a 30-year scale, and the change period was 10 years; the second oscillation period was in a 10-year scale with a variation period of 3 years. Weifang and Zibo, etc. were the high incidence areas of dry-hot wind while Tai’an, Jining, eastern Liaocheng and Qingdao were the low incidence areas, relatively. It is estimated the occurrence of dry-hot wind would take 10-year cycle in the 30-year scale from 2021 to 2050, showing the pattem of “weakening to strengthening and then weakening”, and the “weakening-strengthening-weakening” fluctuation would occur in a 3-year cycle in the 10-year scale.更多还原