【摘要】 对外贸易是国家经济发展中的重要一环，为充分地了解我国对外贸易的发展状况，首先对我国近几年进出口总额、对外进出口依存度的走势以及区域对外贸易空间格局的变迁进行了简要分析，并利用Moran’s I指数分析我国对外贸易的区域差异与空间自相关性，发现我国对外贸易发展的区域差异明显，我国省域对外贸易发展的空间自相关性有增强的趋势。构造了空间杜宾时点固定效应模型发现货物周转量、人均GDP、外商投资总额以及有电子商务交易活动的企业数对我国贸易进出口总额均有正向影响，无论是从总效应还是分解效应来看，人均GDP的影响都十分突出。基于分析结论提出对外贸易发展方面的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign trade is an important part of the national economic development. In order to fully understand the development of China’s foreign trade, this paper firstly makes a brief analysis on the total amount of import and export, the trend of the degree of dependency of import and export and the changes of the spatial pattern of regional foreign trade in recent years. Using Moran’s I index to analyze the regional difference and spatial autocorrelation of Chinese foreign trade, it is found that the regional difference of Chinese foreign trade development is obvious, and the spatial autocorrelation of Chinese provincial foreign trade development has the trend of enhancement. Then, the spatial Dubin fixed-effect model is constructed. It is found that the turnover of goods, per capita GDP, total foreign investment and the number of enterprises with e-commerce transactions all have positive effects on the total import and export volume of China’s trade, and the impact of per capita GDP is very prominent whether from the total effect or the decomposition effect. Finally, based on the conclusion of the analysis, we put forward some policy suggestions concerning our foreign trade development.更多还原