【摘要】 为探索成都地区初生对流的识别、预报方法，利用葵花8号气象卫星数据，借鉴上海夏季初生对流的识别算法对成都平原三次初生对流案例进行检验，并结合天气学方法分析了对流的后续演变特征。三次案例中的初生对流均被算法成功识别，识别方位与初生对流的雷达回波、降水基本一致，识别结果与初生对流的最小距离均值约10 km;识别时间较初生对流平均提前了37 min;初生对流识别结果结合天气学方法，可更准确地预报后续强对流的发生及位置。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the identifying and forecasting method of Convective Initiation(CI) for Chengdu Plain, 3 CI events were examined by an algorithm of identifying CI which were based on Himawari-8 Satellite data.Moreover, the subsequent evolutions of CI events were analyzed by the synoptic method.The results show that: CI events are successfully identified.Prediction are nearly in accord with weather radar echo and precipitation occurred in Chengdu.The mean of the minimum distance between prediction and CI is about 10 km.The average lead time can be about 37 minutes.This algorithm combined with synoptic meteorology may contribute to forecasting the convection and its location.更多还原