【摘要】 深刻认识农户的土地流转决策行为对于完善农地流转政策具有重要意义，而现有研究聚焦于流转结果，缺乏对流转决策过程和行为机制的深入考察。本研究利用仿真模型模拟城镇化和农村老龄化背景下农户开展土地流转的行为规则和动态过程，基于现实数据进行参数校准后的模型所输出的结果得到了样本村实际土地流转数据的验证，其在多个模拟场景下的初步应用为农地流转政策的制定提供了直观的参考。本研究揭示了异质性农户自发性土地流转的决策机制和自下而上农村土地集中化的发生机制，为在更为复杂条件下考察土地流转和土地集中的机理和演化过程提供了一个基准模型，也为开展农地流转政策实施效果的事前评估提供了一个有力工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying farmers’ land transfer decision-making is of great importance for improving farmland transfer policies. However, the existing studies focus on the results of land transfer and lack in-depth investigation of the decision-making process and behavioral mechanisms. This study uses a simulation model to simulate the behavior rules and dynamic processes of farmers’ land transfer under the background of urbanization and rural aging. Being calibrated with real data, the model is validated by matching its outputs with farmland transfer data in sample villages. The preliminary application of the model in several scenarios provides intuitive reference for farmland transfer policy-making. This study reveals the mechanisms underlying farmers’ decision-making in spontaneous farmland transfer and bottom-up farmland concentration at the village level. It provides a benchmark model for examining the mechanisms and processes of farmland transfer and concentration in more complex conditions. The model can be a powerful tool for the pre-evaluation of farmland transfer policies.更多还原