【摘要】 本文构建“以RCEP为基础，充分考虑印度重返RCEP、与CPTPP融合发展、亚太其他国家加入”的亚太区域经济一体化路径，使用标准静态GTAP模型预测各个一体化阶段的经济效应。模拟结果显示：一体化范围扩大能为成员国带来更多的正面宏观经济效应，但由于出口价格削减过度可能导致个别成员国出口额下降和贸易条件恶化；中国参与一体化产业的贸易额普遍增长，但由于一体化范围内的贸易增长量小于一体化范围外的贸易削减量，可能导致某些产业贸易额下降；除畜牧业及其他服务业外，参与一体化产业的产出在不同一体化阶段均可能由于国内销量或出口下降而减少。据此，中国应积极推动亚太区域经济一体化发展，通过加强区域国家合作把握一体化发展机遇，同时也需制定完善的产业政策以有效规避一体化的负面影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we construct a path of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific Region, which is based on RCEP, fully considering India’s return, integration and development with CPTPP and the joining of other countries in the Asia-Pacific Region. The standard static GTAP model is used to predict the economic effects of each integration stage for this path. As the simulation results show, the expansion of integration scope can bring more positive macroeconomic effects to member countries, but the excessive reduction of export prices may lead to the decline of export volume or the deterioration of terms of trade for individual member countries. The trade volume of Chinese industries participating in integration will generally increase. But because the trade growth within the scope of integration is less than the trade reduction outside the scope of integration, the trade volume of some industries will decrease. In addition to animal husbandry and other service industries, the output of other industries participating in integration in China may decrease due to the decline of domestic sales or exports in different integration stages. Therefore, China should actively promote economic integration in the Asia-Pacific Region and seize development opportunities by strengthening cooperation among regional countries in the process of integration. Meanwhile, sound industrial policies need to be formulated to effectively avoid the negative effects of integration.更多还原