【摘要】 工业行业是地区碳排放的主要来源，不同行业因产品类型、工艺水平等不同而处于不同的碳达峰阶段。本文以传统工业城市七大产业链108家企业为例，运用LEAP模型，研究碳达峰目标约束下七大产业链2030年前碳排放特征与碳达峰模式，揭示不同行业碳达峰规律，明确行业碳达峰模式及发展路径。研究显示：碳达峰约束下，钢铁、水泥等建材行业碳排放应持续下降，钢铁行业“十五五”期间能效指标达到先进值，水泥、玻璃行业需要在2025年能效全部达到标杆水平，尽早实现绿色低碳转型，拉动城市如期达峰；化工产业链中氯碱化工、精细化工等已经达到先进值，可以作为重点发展行业；农产品加工及食品产业、汽车等战略新兴产业可以按照现有模式承接产业转移，逐渐成为主导产业。研究成果为高水平推进传统工业城市绿色低碳建设提供有力支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industry is the main source of regional carbon emissions, and different industries are in different carbon peak stages due to different product types and process levels.Taking 108 enterprises of seven industrial chains in the traditional industrial city as examples, this paper uses LEAP model to study the carbon emission characteristics and carbon peaking mode before 2030 seven industrial chains under the constraint of carbon peaking target.This study reveals the carbon peak pattern of different industries and clarifies the carbon peak pattern and development path of different industries.This study indicates that, under the constraint of carbon peak, the carbon emissions of steel, cement, and other building materials industries in the demonstration area should continue to decrease; the energy efficiency index of the steel industry during the“15th Five-Year Plan”period should reach advanced value; the energy efficiency of the cement and glass industries should reach the benchmark level in 2025 to realize the green and low-carbon transition as soon as possible and pull the traditional industrial city to reach the peak as scheduled.In the chemical industry chain, Chlor-alkali chemical industry and fine chemical industry have reached advanced values and can be regarded as key industries for development.Strategic emerging industries such as agricultural product processing, food industry, and automobile industry can undertake industrial transfer according to the existing model and gradually become the leading industries in the demonstration areas.The research results will provide useful support for promoting the green and low-carbon construction of traditional industrial city.更多还原