【摘要】 弹簧作为引信中常用的储能源，是影响引信可靠性的重要零件，而引信失效会形成重大安全隐患。为了准确预估某引信弹簧贮存期间的可靠度变化，提出了一种基于修正Arrhenius模型的多元正态可靠性评估方法。以应力损失率和永久变形率作为性能参数，设计了恒定应力加速退化试验，获取弹簧在120℃、130℃、150℃和160℃下的退化数据，并采用Anderson-Darling统计量验证退化量的最优分布为正态分布。根据修正的Arrhenius方程，得到弹簧在贮存温度下的退化轨迹曲线。基于多元正态分布建立弹簧贮存可靠度模型，分析弹簧贮存期间的可靠度变化特点。通过与其他可靠度模型对比，该模型预估结果更准确，可为引信的视情维修提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a common energy storage component in fuse, spring is an important part which affects the reliability of fuse. The failure of fuse will cause serious hidden danger. In order to accurately predict the change of reliability of the spring for fuse during storage, a multivariate normal reliability evaluation method based on modified Arrhenius model was proposed. Taking the stress loss rate and permanent deformation rate as performance parameters, the constant stress accelerated test was designed to obtain the degradation data of spring at 120 ℃, 130 ℃, 150 ℃ and 160 ℃. Anderson darling statistics were used to verify that the optimal distribution of degradation was normal distribution. According to the modified Arrhenius model, the degradation trajectory curve of spring at storage temperature was obtained. Based on multivariate normal distribution, the storage reliability model of spring was established, and the change characteristics of spring reliability during storage were analyzed. Compared with other reliability models, the prediction results of this model are more accurate, which provides a theoretical basis for the condition-based maintenance of fuse.更多还原