【摘要】 精准的大气能见度预报对空气污染治理、保障公共交通安全等方面具有重要意义。基于2019年12月1日至2020年9月23日国家气象信息中心观测的大气能见度站点数据，分别采用ConvLSTM模型和PredRNN模型对中国中东部地区的能见度进行12 h预报，并对这两种模型的预报结果进行评价。试验表明，PredRNN模型相对于经典的ConvLSTM模型在大气能见度预报、图像质量评价指标和预报指标上都有更好的表现。此外，分析还表明，相对于ConvLSTM模型，PredRNN模型对4000 m中等级别雾区预报效果随时间延长有明显提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accurate forecast of atmospheric visibility is of great significance to air pollution control and public transportation safety. Based on the atmospheric visibility data observed by the National Meteorological Information Center from December 1, 2019 to September 23, 2020, ConvLSTM model and PredRNN model were used to forecast visibility over central and eastern China for 12 h in this work, and the forecast results of the two models were evaluated. The results show that PredRNN model performs better than the traditional ConvLSTM model in atmospheric visibility forecast, image quality evaluation index and forecast index. In addition, it is also found that compared with ConvLSTM model, PredRNN model has improved significantly in forecasting 4000 m medium-level fog area over time.更多还原