【摘要】 考虑到风电机组外部运行环境复杂、维护费用高昂的特点，提出外部冲击作用下的风电机组机会维护策略。用Gamma过程表示系统自然退化过程，用非齐次Poisson过程描述外部环境带来的随机冲击，建立总退化量模型；用维护阈值和突发失效阈值作为双重约束来确定维护概率并得出期望维护费用的表达式；然后通过最优机会维护阈值间隔计算出最优期望维护费用。算例分析了不同影响因素下期望总维护费用与机会维护阈值间隔之间的关系。结果表明，在考虑外部随机冲击影响时的风电机组子系统的总退化量远高于自然退化时产生的退化量，这更符合风电机组运行的实际运行情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the characteristics of complex external operating environment and expensive maintenance cost of wind turbines, an opportunistic maintenance strategy for wind turbines under external environment shocks is proposed. A total degradation model is established by using Gamma process to represent the natural degradation process of the systems and using non-homogeneous Poisson process to describe stochastic shocks caused by the external environment. The maintenance probability is determined and the expected maintenance cost is formulated with the maintenance threshold and the sudden failure threshold as dual constraints. Then, the optimal expected maintenance cost is calculated through the optimal opportunistic maintenance threshold interval. An example is given to analyze the relationship between the expected total maintenance cost and the opportunistic maintenance threshold interval with different influencing factors. Results show that the total degradation of a wind turbine subsystem considering external stochastic shocks is much higher than that considering natural degradation, which is more coincident to the actual operation of the wind turbines.更多还原