【摘要】 以广东省为研究对象，基于Tapio模型计算出广东省2005年至2020年旅游业经济和碳排放脱钩态势，随后将影响脱钩的驱动因素进行分解获得四个影响因子，最后使用VAR模型探究影响因子之间的作用机制。研究结果表明：（1）研究期内，广东省旅游碳排放脱钩指数整体处于-0.1889～1.9970之间，平均脱钩指数值为0.5076，总体呈弱脱钩状态，仅2019年出现强脱钩状态，此外，受疫情影响而导致2020年的脱钩状态恶化为衰退连接；（2）能源强度效应可以促进碳排放的脱钩，其余三个影响因子对脱钩有抑制作用，其中能源结构效应的抑制作用较弱；（3）各影响因子之间互相协调、互相作用，共同影响脱钩效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study, taking Guangdong province as the research object, calculated the decoupling situation of tourism economy and carbon emissions in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2020 based on the Tapio model, decomposed the driving factors affecting the decoupling to obtain four influencing factors and finally applied the VAR model to explore the internal role between the influencing factors. The results show:(1) during the study period, the decoupling index of tourism carbon emissions in Guangdong province is in the range of-0.1889～1.9970 overall, with an average decoupling index of 0.5076, achieving an overall weak decoupling. During that period, only 2019 witnessed a strong decoupling. In addition, Guangdong province, affected by the epidemic, the tourism revenue and tourism carbon emissions decreased significantly, leading to a consecutive deterioration of the decoupling status in 2020;(2) the energy intensity effect may promote the decoupling of carbon emissions, while the other three influence factors may inhibit the decoupling, while the inhibition of energy structure effect is weak;(3) all influencing factors coordinate and interact with each other to jointly affect the decoupling effect.更多还原