【摘要】 顺义断裂是北京平原区重要的晚更新世活动断层。首都国际机场位于顺义断裂中段，2010年以来，机场跑道地裂缝逐渐加剧，地裂缝两侧最大垂直位移差高达20 cm,已经严重影响机场安全运行。当前，顺义断裂活动对首都机场地裂缝的影响仍以定性描述为主。文章以顺义断裂几何结构、第四纪活动性以及首都机场地裂缝调查研究为基础，依据断层位错理论，定量分析了顺义断裂蠕滑活动对机场地裂缝形成的贡献，研究了1996年12月16日顺义M_L4.5级地震对机场地裂缝可能产生的影响，并讨论了顺义断裂未来发生潜在强震时机场地裂缝灾害风险增加的趋势。分析认为，在0.6 mm/a的垂直活动速率下，顺义断裂蠕滑活动46年，在机场地裂缝两侧产生的差异沉降量不超过2.5 cm,对机场地裂缝形成和发展的贡献量约占20%;顺义M_L4.5级地震对机场地裂缝的形成影响甚微，顺义断裂若未来发生7.0级地震，估算在断裂两盘产生的差异沉降量最大达104 cm,机场地裂缝灾害风险将增加5倍；顺义断裂上盘中、深层地下水抽采引起的地面差异沉降在机场地裂缝形成和扩展中的贡献量为70%,仍是导致机场地裂缝加剧的主要因素。研究结果可为首都国际机场地裂缝灾害精准防控提供重要科学参考。此外，为深入揭示顺义断裂沿线地裂缝、地面差异沉降等缓变型地质灾害成因机理和灾害效应，建议在其关键部位实施跨断层位移或形变动态监测工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Shunyi fault in the Beijing Plain region is a significant late Pleistocene active fault. The Beijing Capital International Airport(BCIA) is situated within the central segment of the Shunyi Fault. Since 2010, ground fissures on the airport’s runway have progressively worsened, with a maximum vertical displacement difference of up to 20 cm, severely affecting airport safety. Presently, the impact of Shunyi fault activity on the ground fissures at the BCIA is primarily described qualitatively. This paper, based on research regarding the geometric structure of the Shunyi Fault, Quaternary activity, and investigations of the ground fissures at the Capital Airport, employs the fault dislocation model to quantitatively analyze the influence of the Shunyi Fault’s creep-sliding activity as well as the 1996 Shunyi M_L 4.5 earthquake on the formation of airport ground fissures. The study also discusses the increasing risk of ground fissure hazards in the event of a potential strong earthquake along the Shunyi fault in the future. The preliminary results suggest that with a vertical activity rate of 0.6 mm/year, 46 years of Shunyi Fault’s creep-sliding activity results in differential subsidence of no more than 2.5 cm on both sides of the airport ground fissures, contributing to approximately 20% of the formation and development of these fissures. The impact of the Shunyi M_L 4.5 earthquake on the formation of airport ground fissures is minimal. However, if a future M 7.0 earthquake occurs on the Shunyi fault, the estimated maximum land differential subsidence between two sides of the fault could reach 104 cm, increasing the risk of airport ground fissure disasters by a factor of five. Ground differential settlement due to groundwater extraction from the upper and deeper layers of the Shunyi fault’s hanging wall contributes about 70% to the formation and development of airport ground fissures, remaining the primary factor. The study’s results provide essential scientific references for precise prevention and control of ground fissure disasters at BCIA. Furthermore, to further reveal the causes and mechanisms of delayed geological disasters along the Shunyi fault, such as ground fissures and land differential subsidence, it is recommended to implement dynamic monitoring of cross-fault crustal displacement or deformation at crucial segments.更多还原