【摘要】 犯罪人的犯罪出行行为研究有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。目前已有的研究大多集中于犯罪前出行行为，缺少有关犯罪后出行，即犯罪逃逸行为的研究。本文聚焦于封闭式非门禁居住小区的犯罪人逃逸行为，提出一种通过微观路径模拟结合宏观空间分析的犯罪逃逸行为研究方法。方法首先通过模拟重建犯罪逃逸路径解决研究数据匮乏的问题，具体为基于理性选择理论构建逃逸路径选择函数，采用赋值网格地图量化小区空间环境，使用改进蚁群算法在赋值网格地图上迭代模拟得到路径数据；然后通过空间句法理论解构小区空间在拓扑深度和视域集成度上的空间特征；最后综合犯罪逃逸路径数据和小区空间特征探究犯罪人逃逸行为规律。研究针以Z市5个典型居住小区的外来人员夜间单次盗窃案件为研究对象进行了实证研究，结果表明：犯罪人的逃逸距离有明显的距离衰减特性，并呈现两端衰减；逃逸距离与出入口数量负关联；犯罪人逃逸时会规避视域集成度高的区域且路径轨迹符合空间拓扑规则。研究结论为居住小区的规划布局或建设改造提供了一定的参考，居住小区需重视出入口的规划布局，根据空间位置合理分配犯罪防控资源以及将景观环境设计与小区安全相结合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Studying the journey-to-crime contributes to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind crime occurrence. However, existing research has primarily focused on pre-crime travel behavior, lacking sufficient investigation into post-crime travel, specifically criminal escape behavior. This paper focuses on the escape behavior of criminals in closed non-gated communities and proposes a research methodology that combines micro-level path simulation with macro-level spatial analysis to study criminal escape behavior. The method begins by addressing the problem of limited research data through the simulation-based reconstruction of criminal escape paths. Specifically, it involves constructing an escape path selection function based on rational choice theory,quantifying the spatial environment of the community using an assignment grid map, and iteratively simulating path data using an improved ant colony algorithm on the assignment grid map. Next, the method employs spatial syntax theory to deconstruct the spatial characteristics of the community in terms of topological depth and visual integration. Finally, by integrating the criminal escape path data with the spatial characteristics of the community, the spatial logic of criminal escape behavior is explored. The study conducted an empirical research focusing on night theft cases committed by outsiders in five typical communities in Z city, and the results show that:(1)Criminals’ escape distances displayed a clear distance decay characteristic, and it also shows the decay effect at both ends;(2)The unique built environment and spatial structure of the community significantly affect the criminal behavior. Communities with too many entrances and exits tend to have shorter escape distances for criminals;(3)Criminals will avoid places with high visual integration and look for more concealed spaces to escape;(4)Criminal escape behaviors conform to the rules of space topology, that is, they will choose spaces with small topological depths to escape and follow the descending path of topological depths escape. The research findings provide a reference for the planning and construction transformation of communities. For example, communities should: emphasize the layout of entrances and exits, providing convenience for residents while minimizing the number of entry and exit points; strengthen the management of areas with a moderate distance from entrances and exits, and allocate more crime prevention and control resources in this area, such as increasing security patrols; integrate landscape design with community safety considerations, such as limiting the planting of shrubs that may obstruct pedestrians’ sightlines, thus increasing the visual integration of community space.更多还原