【摘要】 基于2005—2020年相关数据，利用灰色关联分析研究影响中国纸及纸板和各纸种消费的因素，综合运用多元回归分析(multiple regression analysis, MRA)模型、差分自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA模型)和灰色模型GM(1,1)对中国纸及纸板和各纸种进行需求预测。研究发现，中国纸及纸板消费受到多方面因素的影响，各纸种影响因素存在较大差异；2025年前中国纸及纸板需求年均增长率为2.15%～2.76%,但各纸种需求年均增长率差别较大。企业应及时关注所生产纸种主要影响因素的变化，根据纸及纸板和各纸种消费需求发展趋势，及时调整产品结构，适应消费需求的变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on relevant data from 2005 to 2020, the grey relational analysis was used to study the factors that affect the consumption of the overall and various types of China’s paper and paperboard. The MRA model, ARIMA model, and grey model GM(1,1) were comprehensively used to predict the demand for the overall and various types of paper and paperboard in China. The results show that the consumption of China’s paper and paperboard is influenced by various factors, and there are significant differences in the influencing factors among different types of paper and paperboard. Before 2025, the average annual growth rate of China’s paper and paperboard demand was 2.15%～2.76%, but there is a significant difference in the average annual growth rate of demand for various types of paper and paperboard. Paper and paperboard companies should pay timely attention to the changes in the main influencing factors of the types they produce, and adjust their product structure in a timely manner to adapt to changes in consumption demand based on the consumption demand development trend of the overall and various types of paper and paperboard.更多还原