【摘要】 规划应具备分析和评价方案空间绩效的能力，这是规划科学性的基本要求。提出一种新的规划模拟评价方法，聚焦城市用地布局规划中的“功能—用地”“功能—功能”匹配问题，集成多种模型模拟供给和需求的空间分布，并借鉴空间绩效相关研究构建指标体系，系统评价规划方案的供需匹配绩效。针对上海市虹桥主城片区单元规划开展应用，发现其通过规划就业和商业中心，一定程度上提升了全市尤其是周边地区的通勤和消费出行绩效，但也付出了供需匹配绩效下降的代价，带来商务商业空间空置风险和交通压力。访谈调查和相关研究在多个方面印证评价结果，验证了方法的有效性。认为所提出的模拟评价方法一定意义上也可为智能规划奠定基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 The scientific planning paradigm calls for systematic analysis and evaluation of potential outcomes of spatial plans. This paper proposes a novel method for planning simulation and evaluation, focusing on spatial performance and emphasizing the compatibility between different urban functions as well as between urban functions and land use. It constructs a series of models to simulate the spatial distribution of supply and demand and evaluates plan performance in meeting spatial needs through employing metrics derived from existing studies. The method is tested in the evaluation of the unit plan of Hongqiao, Shanghai. Results demonstrate that the plan helps improve the efficiency of commuting and consumption-related trips through strategically reserving spaces for employment and commercial centers. However, it also raises the risk of commercial and business space vacancy and may exacerbate traffic congestion. Field investigations confirm the evaluation results in many aspects, providing evidence for the methods’ validity. Finally, we conclude that the method lays the foundation for smart planning.更多还原