【摘要】 在梳理耦合跃迁机理的基础上，构建了科技创新、经济增长与生态环境三系统的评价指标体系，凭借熵值法、耦合协调度模型、空间重心模型与GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，科学测算与分析了2006～2019年长三角城市群科技创新、经济增长与生态环境三系统之间的时空耦合特征及其未来演变趋势。研究表明：(1)科技创新、经济增长和与生态环境各系统综合水平发展情况总体向好；(2)三系统耦合协调水平呈平稳上升态势，整体实现了由失调衰退状态向协调发展状态的转变，但在空间分布上存在不平衡，呈“中心-边缘”与“Z字型”分布特征；(3)长三角城市群高科技创新水平、高经济发展水平与高生态环境水平城市的空间错位分布特征显著，其中科技创新与经济增长的空间匹配程度最优，但在经历前期快速融合后，现面临难以继续深化的难题；(4)预测期内长三角城市群整体三系统耦合协调水平持续改善，但个别西部城市仍无法跳出失调衰退的发展状态。最后，为推动长三角城市群实现更高质量的一体化发展，本文提出相应的协调发展建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on analysis of the coupling mechanism and its transition mode, this paper established an evaluation index system for three systems: technology innovation, economic growth and ecological environment. Using the entropy method, coupling coordination model, spatial center of gravity model and grey prediction model, this paper scientifically measured and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution and trend prediction of coupling coordination among technology innovation, economic growth and ecological environment in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations from 2006 to 2019. According to the research: during the study period:(1) the comprehensive level of technology innovation, economic growth and ecological environment developed favorably.(2) the level of coupling coordination of the three systems was on a steady upward trend, with a state shifting from dysfunctionality to coordination. However, there was an imbalance in the spatial distribution featuring with “center-edge” and “zigzag”.(3) the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations were characterized by a significant spatial mismatch between cities with high levels of technology innovation, economic growth and ecological environment. Therein, the technology innovation and economic growth matched best spatially, but after a period of rapid integration, it was hard to continue in deepening.(4) during the prediction period, the level of coupling coordination of the three systems continued to increase, however, partial western cities would continue to be dysfunctional in development. In order to promote the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations to achieve a higher quality of integrated development, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions for coordinated development.更多还原