【摘要】 针对沱江流域近30年来景观生态风险演变较为欠缺的问题，该文基于1990—2020年7期土地利用数据构建生态风险评价模型，综合运用地统计学、空间自相关、重心转移等方法探究生态风险时空演变规律。结果表明：建设用地扩张强烈，耕地减少明显，耕地生态风险下降，草地、林地生态风险上升，土地转移类型以耕地-林地、耕地-建设用地和林地-耕地为主，由这3种转移类型引起风险变化分别以降低、升高、降低为主；生态风险整体下降，其降低为上升面积的2.78倍；生态风险空间正相关显著，呈聚集状态，高-高聚集主要在较高、高风险区，低-低聚集主要在低、较低风险区；风险重心整体由东南-西北迁移，累计迁移34.832 0 km。研究成果可为生态文明建设和资源开发提供预警信息。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the problem of the lack of landscape ecological risk evolution of the Tuojiang River basin in the past 30 years, the ecological risk evaluation model was constructed based on the land use data from 1990-2020,and the spatial and temporal evolution law of ecological risk was explored by means of geostatistics, spatial autocorrelation and gravity transfer. The results showed that: the construction land expansion was strong, the cropland decreased significantly. The ecological risk of cropland had decreased, the ecological risk of grassland and forest increased. The land use transfer types were mainly cropland-forest, cropland-construction land and forest-cropland. The risk changes caused by these three transfer types were mainly reduced, increased and decreased respectively. The overall decline in ecological risk, the reduced area was 2.78 times that of the rising area. The positive correlation of ecological risk was significant, in an aggregated state, high-high clusters were mainly in higher, high-risk areas, low-low aggregation was mainly in the low and low risk areas. The overall risk center of gravity migrated from southeast to northwest, with a cumulative migration of 34.832 0 km. The research results could provide early warning information for the construction of ecological civilization and resource development.更多还原