【摘要】 目的：探讨结缔组织病(CTD)合并间质性肺疾病(ILD)的危险因素并建立预测模型。方法：收集2021年1月-2021年6月宜昌市中心人民医院风湿免疫科收治的42名CTD-ILD患者与60名CTD患者的相关资料，比较两组的一般资料、临床症状与实验室指标，采用Logistic回归分析建立预测模型与列线图，并根据受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证模型拟合效果。结果：单因素分析结果显示，两组吸烟、病程、雷诺现象、类风湿因子与白介素-6(IL-6)比较，差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素二元Logistic回归模型分析发现，吸烟、病程增加与IL-6升高是并发ILD的危险因素。预测模型为：logit(p)=ln(p/1-p)=-3.874+1.879×吸烟+0.372×病程+0.05×IL-6,ROC曲线分析该模型的曲线下面积为0.896。结论：吸烟、病程延长及IL-6升高是CTD并发ILD的危险因素，根据其构建的风险预测模型具有良好的预测效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To explore the risk factors of connective tissue disease(CTD) complicated with interstitial lung disease(ILD), and establish the prediction model. Methods: There were 42 patients diagnosed with CTD-ILD and 60 patients diagnosed with CTD admitted to Yichang Central People’s Hospital from January 2021 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The general data, clinical symptoms and laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared. The predictive model and nomogram were established on the basis of Logistic regression analysis. The model fitting effect was verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. Results: The results of univariate analysis suggested that there were statistically significant differences in smoking, disease duration, reynolds phenomenon, rheumatoid factor and interleukin-6(IL-6) between the two groups(all P<0.05). Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis indicated that smoking, increased course of disease and elevated IL-6 were risk factors for ILD. The prediction model was as follows: logit(p)=ln(p/1-p)=-3.874+1.879×smoking+0.372×disease duration+0.05×IL-6, with the area under the ROC curve of 0.896. Conclusion: Smoking, increased course of disease and elevated IL-6 were risk factors of CTD complicated with ILD, and the risk prediction model showed good prediction effect.更多还原