【摘要】 本文对2010—2020年天峻县草原蝗虫秋季越冬数据和气象资料的相关性进行了分析，并采用逐步回归分析法构建了草原蝗虫种群密度、发生面积和危害面积的长期预测模型。结果表明：蝗虫发生密度主要与温度相关，发生和危害面积主要与温度、日照时数、相对湿度和降雨量相关；蝗虫发生面积预测模型预测准确率为80%，蝗虫危害面积和种群密度预测模型预测准确率均为100%。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the correlation between the data of grassland locusts in autumn and meteorological data in Tianjun County from 2010 to 2020, and constructed a long-term prediction model for the population density,occurrence area and damage area of grassland locusts in Tianjun County by stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the occurrence density of locusts was mainly related to temperature, and the occurrence and damage area were mainly related to temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and rainfall; the prediction accuracy of locust occurrence area prediction model was 80%, and the prediction accuracy of locust damage area and population density prediction model was 100%.更多还原