【摘要】 厘清金融排斥对农户农地流转行为的影响对推动农地规模经营，实现农业农村现代化至关重要。本文利用陕西永寿县和宁夏西吉县2648户农户实地调研数据，采用Probit、双变量Probit模型实证分析金融排斥对农户农地流转行为的影响及其异质性，并通过逐步回归法验证非农就业和农业资本投资在金融排斥与农地流转中的作用机制。结果表明：(1)金融排斥对农户农地流转行为具有显著的负向影响，即金融排斥指数每增加1单位，农户农地转入概率下降4.71%，转出概率下降1.43%。(2)金融排斥对农户农地流转行为的负向影响在不同排斥类型和农户间表现出一定差异。在金融排斥异质性方面，储蓄排斥、信贷排斥和保险排斥均会降低农户农地流转概率；在农户异质性方面，金融排斥对户主年龄在40～59岁、文化程度为小学及以下和耕地规模在20亩以上的农户农地流转行为负向影响更强。(3)金融排斥能通过抑制农户非农就业而降低其农地转出概率，同时也能通过抑制农户农业资本投资而降低其农地转入概率。本文结论可在一定程度上为缓解农户金融排斥和完善农地流转市场，实现农业适度规模经营提供实证依据和现实参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Clarifying the impact of financial exclusion on farming households’ farmland transfer behavior is crucial for promoting large-scale farmland management and realizing agricultural and rural modernization. This study used field research data from 2648 farming households in Yongshou County, Shaanxi Province and Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and adopted the Probit and bivariable Probit models to empirically test the impact of financial exclusion on farmland transfer and its heterogeneity. The mechanisms of the roles of nonfarm employment and agricultural capital investment in financial exclusion and farmland transfer were verified by the stepwise regression method. The results show that:(1) Financial exclusion has a significant negative effect on farmland transfer behavior of farming households. For every one unit increase in the financial exclusion index, the probability of transferring farmland to farming households decreases by 4.71% and the probability of transferring out decreases by 1.43%.(2) The negative impact of financial exclusion on farming households’ farmland transfer behavior shows differences among different exclusion types and farmers. In terms of financial exclusion heterogeneity, savings exclusion, credit exclusion, and insurance exclusion all reduce the probability of farmland transfer; in terms of farming household heterogeneity, financial exclusion has a more substantial negative impact on farmland transfer behavior of farming households whose head is 40～59 years of age, whose education level is elementary school or below, and whose farmland size is more than 20 mu.(3) Financial exclusion can reduce the probability of farmland transfer by inhibiting farming households’ off-farm employment and by inhibiting farming households’ agricultural capital investment. The findings of this study provide some empirical evidence and a practical reference for alleviating the financial exclusion of farming households,improving the market of farmland transfer, and realizing moderate-scale agricultural operation.更多还原