【摘要】 粤港澳大湾区是中国遭受台风灾害最为严重的地区之一，对其进行台风危险性分析是区域内重大工程抗风设防和城市抗风防台决策的基础。全路径随机合成台风模型可以模拟台风从生成到消亡的全部过程，是评估台风危险性最有潜力的模型。本文将对统计动力学全路径合成台风模型进行改进，并利用历史台风事件对该模型在大湾区的适用性进行系统验证；然后利用该模型生成万年台风事件集，结合台风三维数值风场模型模拟各台风事件近地面风场，产生长时间序列的台风最大风速样本，统计得到区域内不同重现期的风危险性。通过与规范设计风速进行对比，对特定地点的极值风速，文中模拟结果与规范值有较好地一致性。基于文中的模拟结果，绘制了粤港澳大湾区的50年和100年回归风速高分辨率地图，分析大湾区局部区域的台风危险性特点。本文的台风危险性分析结果可用于大湾区的工程抗风设计和防灾减灾规划。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is one of the most severely affected areas by typhoon in China. Typhoon hazard analysis is essential for the policy-making of wind design criteria for major engineering projects and city disaster preparedness plans in this region.The synthetic full track typhoon model can simulate the whole process of typhoon events from generation to extinction,which is the most potential model for the evaluation of typhoon hazards. In this study,a statistical dynamics full-track synthetic typhoon model is improved and tested for its applicability to the Greater Bay Area. Typhoon events in ten thousand years are then generated. Combing with a three-dimensional numerical typhoon wind field model to simulate regional wind speeds,the long period of the maximum wind speed samples are obtained to estimate the typhoon wind hazard with multi return periods. By comparing with design wind speed defined in the national building code,we have found that the simulation results are in good agreement with those in the code at several locations. Based on the simulation results,the high-resolution wind hazard maps of 50-year and 100-year return periods of the Greater Bay Area are drawn,the typhoon hazard in various regions of the Greater Bay Area is discussed. These results could be used in engineering wind resistance design and disaster prevention and mitigation planning in the Greater Bay Area.更多还原