【摘要】 基于可获取的近十五年省级面板数据对浙江省物流业碳排放量变化情况进行了测算，对浙江省物流业造成的环境压力与经济增长之间的差异进行了比较。同时，建立Tapio模型，对浙江省经济增长与物流业碳排放之间的脱钩关系进行了实证，最后通过LMDI分解模型对浙江省碳排放的驱动因素进行分析。研究结果表明：浙江省经济发展的增速高于物流业碳排放量与能源消耗的增速；浙江省的经济增长与物流业碳排放的脱钩状态完成了由扩张连结—弱脱钩—强脱钩的转变，说明这两者之间的增长关联正向完全脱钩的阶段发展；经济产出强度、从业人口规模是浙江省碳排放的主要正向驱动因素，而能源结构与能源强度则抑制了浙江省物流业的碳排放；较高的经济水平与人均碳排放水平对脱钩具有明显的影响，而经济结构的变化对脱钩关系的影响则比较有限。因此，从优化能源结构与能源效率、加强物流企业新能源转型、构建物流业发展与环境保护的良性互动长效机制等方面提出了相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The changes in carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Zhejiang province were measured based on the available provincial panel data for the last 15 years, and the differences between the environmental pressure caused by the logistics industry and economic growth in Zhejiang province were compared. At the same time, a Tapio model was established to empirically demonstrate the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Zhejiang province, and finally the drivers of carbon emissions in Zhejiang province were analyzed through the LMDI decomposition model. The results of the study showed that: the growth rate of economic development in Zhejiang province was higher than the growth rate of carbon emissions and energy consumption in the logistics industry; the decoupling status of economic growth and carbon emissions in the logistics industry in Zhejiang province had completed the transition from expansionary linkage-weak decoupling-strong decoupling, indicating that the growth linkage between the two was developing towards a stage of complete decoupling; the intensity of economic output, the economic output intensity and population size were the main positive drivers of carbon emissions in Zhejiang province, while energy structure and energy intensity inhibited carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Zhejiang province;higher economic levels and per capita carbon emissions had a significant impact on decoupling, while changes in economic structure had a more limited impact on the decoupling relationship. Therefore,corresponding countermeasures were proposed in terms of optimizing energy structure and energy efficiency, strengthening the new energy transformation of logistics enterprises, and constructing a longterm mechanism of benign interaction between the development of logistics industry and environmental protection.更多还原