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青海省经济暴露价值的精细化研究

Fine Estimates of Economic Exposure Value in Qinghai Province

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【作者】 李宁; 黄承芳; 张正涛; 顾卫; 刘峰贵;

【Author】 LI Ning;HUANG Chengfang;ZHANG Zhengtao;GU Wei;LIU Fenggui;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University;School of National Safety and Emergency Management , Beijing Normal University;Institute of Disaster Risk Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University;

【通讯作者】 黄承芳;

【机构】 青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院; 北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院; 北京师范大学地理科学学部灾害风险科学研究院;

【摘要】 自然灾害造成的地区经济损失很大程度上取决于灾区内经济暴露资本存量价值的空间分布。鉴于中国的资本存量价值是以国家或省的行政单元统计的,市级尺度和产业部门级别的资本价值计量仍然是能否提高灾害经济损失评估精度的主要挑战。近年来青海省资本存量稳步提升,但其市级尺度和产业部门的存量精细化研究较少。该文估算了2003—2019年青海省8个市(州)的19个产业部门的资本存量,研究发现:(1)电力/煤气/水的生产供应业和水利/环境/公共设施管理业的资本存量在各市占比均较大,以海南州的55.3%居于首位。(2)采矿业的资本存量以年均增长率13.9%稳定增长,集中在海西州。(3)农林牧渔业的资本存量自2014—2019年全省平均增长了13.5倍,其中海北州和黄南州的占比超过全省平均值。(4)制造业始终是资本存量最高的产业,集中于海西州(33.4%)和西宁市(31.5%)。市级尺度和产业部门两方面资本存量的精细化计量结果,有助于揭示青海省自然灾害风险跨空间和产业部门的物理和社会驱动因素的贡献,也利于制定因地制宜的政策让青海省资源优势充分发挥。

【Abstract】 The economic losses caused by natural disasters depend on the spatial distribution of the value of economic exposure capital in the disaster area. Due to the value of China’s capital stock is estimated in national or provincial administrative units, the value at the city level and the industrial sector level still poses a major challenge for the assessment of disaster economic losses. In recent years, the accumulation of capital stock in Qinghai Province has steadily increased, but there has been little research on the city level and in the industrial sector. This paper estimates the capital stocks of 19 industrial sectors in 8 Cities(States) in Qinghai Province from 2003 to 2019. The research finds that(1)The capital stock of production and supply industry of electricity/gas/water, industry of waterconservancy/environment/public facilities management accounted for a large proportion in each city, with 55.3% of Hainan State ranking first.(2)The capital stock of the mining industry has grown steadily with an average annual growth rate of 13.9%, and mainly distributedin Haixi State.(3)The capital stock of agriculture forestry animal husbandry and fishery industry has increased by an average of 13.5 times from 2014 to 2019, and the proportions of Haibei and Huangnan States exceed the provincial average.(4) Manufacturing industry has always been the highest capital stock sector, and mainly distributed in Haixi State(33.4%) and Xining City(31.5%).The estimated results of the fine capital stock at the city and economic sectors will help reveal the contribution of the physical and social driving factors of natural disasters across the spatial and sectors in Qinghai Province.It is also beneficial to make policies adapt to local conditions for full playing the resource advantages of Qinghai Province.

【基金】 国家自然科学基金(42171074);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0906; 2019QZKK0606)
  • 【文献出处】 灾害学 ,Journal of Catastrophology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2022年03期
  • 【分类号】F127
  • 【下载频次】31
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