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基于演化博弈论的沼肥推广策略研究

Research on the Promotion Strategy of Biogas Fertilizer Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

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【作者】 陈理王泽宇赵凯柳珊

【Author】 CHEN Li;WANG Ze-yu;ZHAO Kai;LIU Shan;Bioenergy and Environment Science&Technology laboratory,China Agricultural University;China Agricultural University Yantai Institute;

【通讯作者】 柳珊;

【机构】 中国农业大学工学院生物能源环境科学与技术研究室中国农业大学烟台研究院

【摘要】 我国沼气产业快速发展,由此产生了大量沼液沼渣,若不能及时消纳,将会对环境造成二次污染。大力推广沼肥可以缓解长期过量施用化肥对生态环境造成的不良影响。基于演化博弈理论,该研究根据沼肥推广过程中涉及的主体,构建了政府、沼气工程企业和农户三方演化博弈模型,试图研究在沼肥推广过程中3个主体之间的互动机制,通过博弈分析得出该模型的演化稳定策略。该模型的演化稳定策略为(1,1,1),即政府大力支持沼肥推广,沼气工程企业投资沼肥生产项目,农户选择沼肥是演化稳定策略。结果表明,在沼肥的推广过程中,政府、沼气工程企业和农户的决策行为相互影响,任意一方的演化策略会同时受到其他两方主体演化策略的影响。政府相关政策的实施、沼气工程企业投资沼肥生产项目,需要考虑农户对沼肥的接受程度。农户对沼肥的选择意愿也与政府和沼气工程企业对沼肥的推广程度以及扶持力度有关。该研究结论可以为我国沼肥推广提供参考。

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of Chinese biogas industry, a large number of liquid digestate and solid digestate are produced. If they can not be absorbed in time, they will cause secondary pollution. By promoting biogas fertilizer, the adverse effects of long-term excessive application of chemical fertilizer can be alleviated. Based on the evolutionary game theory, we construct a tripartite evolutionary game model of government, biogas engineering enterprises and farmers in the process of biogas fertilizer promotion to study the interaction mechanism among the three subjects, and obtain the evolutionary stability strategy of the model through game analysis. The evolutionary stability strategy of this model is(1,1,1), that is, the government strongly supports the promotion of biogas fertilizer, biogas engineering enterprises invest in biogas fertilizer production projects, and farmers choose biogas fertilizer as the evolutionary stability strategy.The results show that the decision-making behaviors of government, biogas engineering enterprises and farmers affect each other in the process of biogas fertilizer promotion. The evolution strategy of one party will be affected by the other two at the same time. The implementation of government policies and the investment of biogas engineering enterprises in biogas fertilizer production projects need to consider the farmers’ acceptance of biogas fertilizer. Farmers’ willingness to choose biogas fertilizer is also related to the promotion and support of biogas fertilizer by the government and biogas engineering enterprises. The research conclusion can provide reference for the promotion of biogas fertilizer.

【基金】 基于农业有机废弃物资源化利用技术的绿色农业发展模式(2019XDRHXMQT36)
  • 【分类号】F224.32;F323.214
  • 【下载频次】156
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