【摘要】 为测算中国省际贸易下的碳排放转移，从排放责任的角度讨论排放结构、转移流向及福利溢出效应，该研究基于2015和2017年多区域投入产出表，构建碳排放转移核算模型，引入地区发展与民生指数作为社会福利的代理变量，并利用最小二乘回归和地理加权回归模型考察碳排放转移对社会福利的影响。研究结果表明：(1)2015—2017年，中国直接碳排放在总量上略有增长，整体表现出“西低东高”空间分布特征，但碳排放强度得到显著改善。(2)各省份生产侧和消费侧碳排放在排放总量和排放结构上均存在较大差异。内需排放、中间产品和最终产品的调入、调出是构成省域碳排放的主要部分，其他国家对中国的“碳泄漏”有所降低。(3)北部沿海和黄河中游地区是碳排放的主要流入地区，东部沿海、京津地区、长江中游地区以及广东是碳排放的主要流出地区，省际碳排放转移呈现自东向西、由沿海向内陆的转移趋势。(4)碳排放转入对社会福利具有负向溢出效应，碳排放转出、外资规模和产业结构对社会福利具有正向溢出效应。碳排放转入的负向福利溢出效应表现为“西高东低”的特征，且随时间变化不明显；碳排放转出的正向溢出效应从自南向北逐渐递减的趋势转变为自东、西向中部逐渐增强的趋势。上述结论对地区碳减排政策制定及碳排放权配额分配具有启示意义，应充分把握碳排放转移特征，从差异化制定地区减排政策、因地制宜推进区域节能降碳、考虑“责任共担”原则以及充分发挥碳交易市场作用等方面采取措施，为推动实现中国经济高质量发展提供研究思路和理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To measure the carbon emission transfer in China’s interprovincial trade and discuss the emission structure, transfer flows,and economic and social effects of carbon transfer from the perspective of emission responsibility, this study first built a carbon emission transfer accounting model based on the multi-regional input-output tables in 2015 and 2017, then introduced the regional development and life index to describe social welfare, and investigated the impact of carbon emission transfer on social welfare using the least squares regression and the geographically weighted regression model. The results showed that:(1) From 2015 to 2017, China’s direct carbon emissions increased slightly in total, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of ’low in the west and high in the east,’while the carbon emission intensity significantly improved.(2) There were significant differences in the total emission amount and emission structure of carbon emissions on the production side and consumption side of each province. Domestic demand emissions, transferin and transfer-out of intermediate products and final products constituted the main part of provincial carbon emissions, and the ’carbon leakage’ of other countries to China decreased.(3) The coastal areas of northern China and the middle reaches of the Yellow River were the main inflow regions of carbon emissions, and the coastal areas in eastern China, the Beijing-Tianjin region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Guangdong were the main outflow regions of carbon emissions. The interprovincial carbon emission transfer showed a trend from east to west and from coast to inland.(4) Carbon emissions transferred in had a negative spillover effect on social welfare, and carbon emissions transferred out, foreign capital scale, and industrial structure had a positive spillover effect on social welfare. The negative welfare spillover effect of carbon emissions transferred in showed a characteristic of ’high in the west and low in the east’ and the change was not obvious with time; the positive spillover effect of carbon emissions transferred out changed from a trend of gradually decreasing from south to north to a trend of gradually increasing from east and west to the central region. The above conclusions have implications for the formulation of regional carbon emission reduction policies and the allocation of carbon emission rights quotas. It is necessary to fully grasp the characteristics of carbon emission transfer; formulate regional emission reduction policies from a differentiated perspective; promote regional energy conservation and carbon reduction according to local conditions; consider the principle of ’responsibility sharing;’ and give full play to the role of the carbon trading market. Measures need to be taken to provide research ideas and a theoretical basis for promoting the realization of high-quality economic development in China.更多还原