【摘要】 目的:研究全国2009—2018年活动性肺结核报告发病率的变动趋势，并对2019—2022年报告发病率及终止结核病流行状况进行预测。方法:收集全国2009—2020年活动性肺结核报告发病率监测资料，应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验研究全国2009—2018年活动性肺结核报告发病率的变动趋势，并应用灰色模型GM(1,1)对全国活动性肺结核报告发病率进行预测。结果:全国活动性肺结核报告发病率从2009年的81.09/10万下降到2018年的59.27/10万，10年间下降了26.91%,10年间年均递降率为3.42%,总体呈下降趋势(Mann-Kendall趋势检验，Z=-3.940,P<0.001)。灰色模型GM(1,1)拟合结果显示，预测值和实测值平均相对误差为0.8255%,后验差比值C=0.097,小误差概率值P=1,说明拟合精度为优，可以用于外推预测。应用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测全国2019—2022年活动性肺结核报告发病率结果为56.7673/10万、55.1394/10万、53.5581/10万、52.0222/10万。如结核病防控策略维持不变，按照年均递降率为3.42%计算，到2030年全国活动性肺结核报告发病率为39.04/10万，到2035年为32.80/10万。结论:2009—2018年全国活动性肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势，如结核病防控策略维持不变，实现世界卫生组织终止结核病流行策略难度很大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To study the trend of reported incidence of national active pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB) in 2009—2018, and predict the reported incidence from 2019 to 2022 and the status of ending the TB epidemic in China. Methods: The active PTB reported incidence between 2009 and 2020 were collected. The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the trend of national active tuberculosis between 2009 to 2018 and grey model(GM(1,1)) was used to predict the reported incidence. Results: The reported incidence of active PTB in China decreased from 81.09/100 000 in 2009 to 59.27/100 000 in 2018 with a downward trend according to the Mann-Kendall trend test(Z=-3.940, P<0.001). In the past 10 years, it has decreased by 26.91% and the average annual decline rate is 3.42%. The grey model GM(1,1) has good fitting accuracy and could be used to predict, with an average relative error of 0.8255%, posteriori error ratio C=0.097, and small error probability P=1 between predicted value and actual value. Predicted by the GM(1,1) model, the reported incidence of active PTB in China from 2019 to 2022 were 56.7673/100 000, 55.1394/100 000, 53.5581/100 000 and 52.0222/100 000, respectively. If the concurrent TB control strategy remains unchanged, the reported incidence of active PTB will be 39.04/100 000 in 2030 and 32.80/100 000 in 2035 based on the average annual decline rate of 3.42%. Conclusion: From 2009 to 2018, the active PTB reported incidence in China showed a downward trend. It is difficult to achieve the WHO End TB Strategy if the current control strategy remains unchanged.更多还原