【摘要】 为有效预测某区域电动汽车负荷峰值与峰值时刻，以确定电动汽车负荷调频容量，本文基于出行链及起止点矩阵理论，考虑工作日与休息日出行习惯的差异性，并结合实际道路交通状况，建立了电动汽车区域道路模型；考虑用户出行目的与电动汽车停驻信息，采用模糊充电规则对电动汽车负荷充电需求进行判断；结合配电网历史运行数据，对24h内电动汽车可参与电网调频的容量进行预测；选定实际面积为900平方千米的某区域，通过仿真分析该区域电动汽车在工作日可提供的调频容量；仿真结果表明电动汽车可提供的调频容量十分可观，可有效参与电网调频服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to effectively predict the peak and peak moments of electric vehicle load in a certain area, to determine the electric vehicle load frequency modulation capacity, this paper is based on the travel chain and start-stop matrix theory, considers the difference between workdays and rest and sunrise habits, and combines actual road traffic conditions. Established an electric vehicle regional road model; considering the user’s travel purpose and electric vehicle parking information, fuzzy charging rules are used to judge the electric vehicle load charging demand; combined with the historical operation data of the distribution network, the electric vehicle can participate in the frequency regulation of the power grid within 24 hours Capacity prediction; select an area with an actual area of 900 square kilometers, and analyze the FM capacity that electric vehicles can provide in this area on weekdays through simulation; the simulation results show that the FM capacity that electric vehicles can provide is considerable, effectively participate in grid frequency modulation services.更多还原