【摘要】 在福建省三明市实施的碳票政策背景下，依据三明市沙县和将乐县的实地调研数据，运用改进的Faustmann-Hartman模型构建的单轮伐期作业的杉木林地期望价值模型，计算出林地期望价值净现值和林地最优采伐期，当木材价格为1 000元/m~3,利率为时4%,加入以15元/t的碳票收益后，林地最优采伐期未改变，均为24a,碳供给量也没有改变。但在进行灵敏度分析时发现，利率对最优采伐期的影响最大，利率提高会显著缩短林地最优采伐期，不利于碳供给的增加。木材价格也显著影响最优采伐期，木材价格越高，从生产经营角度来说，经营主体更倾向于提前采伐林木。同时适当的碳票价格会相应延长最优采伐期以获得更高的碳汇收益。研究表明：碳票政策的实施，会使得杉木林地期望值增长迅速，增加林农收益，同时最优采伐期也有延长趋势，以此可以增加碳供给，提高林木碳汇能力和经济价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of the carbon ticket policy implemented in Sanming, Fujian Province, this paper used the improved FaustMann-Hartman model to construct the expected value model of Chinese fir forest land in a single round of cutting operation and to calculate the net present value of expected value of woodland and the optimal cutting period of woodland according to the field research data of Shaxian County and will Le county in Sanming City. The results showed that when the price of wood was 1 000 yuan/m~3, the interest rate would be 4%, and the optimal cutting period of forest land was not changed after adding carbon coupon income of 15 yuan/t with both of which were 24 A, and the carbon supply was not changed either. However, it found that the interest rate had the greatest impact on the optimal cutting period in the sensitivity analysis, and the increase of interest rate would significantly shorten the optimal cutting period, which was not conducive to the increase of carbon supply. The price of wood also significantly affected the optimal cutting period. From the perspective of production and management, it thought that the higher the price of wood, the operators were more inclined to cut trees in advance. At the same time, the appropriate carbon ticket price would extend the optimal harvesting period to obtain higher carbon sink income. In general, the implementation of carbon bill policy would make the expected growth of Chinese fir forest land rapidly, which meant the forest land had huge potential investment value, and the appropriate carbon trading market would prolong the optimal cutting period, increase the carbon supply, improve the carbon sequestration capacity and economic value of trees.更多还原