【摘要】 针对考虑共因失效的多失效模式可靠性问题，基于分析法设计的失效准则和响应面法建立非连续的功能函数，采用点估计法计算功能函数的前四阶中心矩，并根据高阶矩标准化技术在标准正态空间中计算可靠度。通过对控制棒驱动机构(CRDM)承压壳体多失效模式可靠性建模分析，验证了该方法在核电设备结构可靠性分析中的适用性。结果表明，对于基本随机变量偏度较大的情况，点估计法比传统基于摄动理论的一次可靠性方法精度更高，也更适用于功能函数复杂的多失效模式可靠性分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the multi-failure mode reliability problem considering common cause failure, the discontinuous performance function was established based on the failure criterion in analytical design technique and the response surface approach, the first four central moments of the performance function were obtained by point estimation method, and the reliability index was calculated in the standard normal distribution space according to the high-order moment standardization technique.The applicability of this method in the structural reliability analysis of nuclear equipment was verified by the multi-failure mode reliability modeling and analysis of CRDM pressure shell.The results show that for the case of large skewness of basic random variables, the point estimation method has higher accuracy than the traditional first order reliability method based on perturbation theory, and is more suitable for multi-failure mode reliability analysis with complex performance functions.更多还原