【摘要】 目的：通过对基于地理信息系统（geographic information system,GIS）技术的人群动态模型设计研究，提升对群体行为的动态可视化监测及人群活动的时空前瞻性预测能力。方法：设计与构建模型总体框架、功能、数据结构、接口等，论述运用空间相关性、马尔科夫链原理进行人群空间分布及人群轨迹预测的原理。结果：系统的构建可从多视角呈现在突发事件爆发情况下人群流动过程及其演变规律。结论：系统可提供分时段、分区域人群聚集分布动态观测及行为轨迹动向预测，为突发公共安全事件中的防控预测提供有效技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective Through the design and research of dynamic model of population based on geographic information system(GIS) technology, to improve the dynamic visual monitoring of group behavior and the spatiotemporal prospective prediction ability of population activities. Methods The overall framework, functions, data structure, interfaces and other aspects of the model were designed and constructed, and the spatial distribution of population and the principle of population trajectory prediction were discussed by using spatial correlation and Markov Chain principle. Results The constructed system can present the process and evolution law of crowd flow in emergencies from multiple perspectives. Conclusion The system can provide dynamic observation of crowd gathering distribution in different periods and regions and prediction of behavior trajectory, and provide effective technical support for prevention and control prediction in public security emergencies.更多还原