【摘要】 目的 分析早期肝癌患者术后复发的危险因素，并建立风险列线图模型。方法 回顾性分析2016年1月到2020年1月中山小榄人民医院收治的100例早期肝癌患者的临床资料，单因素和Logistic多因素回归分析早期肝癌患者术后复发的危险因素，并建立风险列线图模型。结果 肿瘤大小（OR=3.747, 95%CI:1.368～10.262）、肿瘤结节数（OR=8.191,95%CI:2.378～28.212）、血管癌栓（OR=2.782, 95%CI:1.105～7.002）、血管侵犯（OR=2.710, 95%CI:0.994～7.393）、肝硬化（OR=5.479, 95%CI:1.681～17.866）是早期肝癌患者术后复发的独立危险因素，基于以上5项独立危险因素，建立风险列线图模型，并对模型行Bootstrap法（1 000次重复抽样法）内部验证，实际值比较接近于预测值，一致性指数（C-index）为0.871 (95%CI:0.845～0.896)，表明列线图模型具备较好的精准度和区分度。结论 肿瘤大小、肿瘤结节数、血管癌栓、血管侵犯、肝硬化是早期肝癌患者术后复发的独立危险因素，其建立的风险预测模型预测精准度较好，能够指导医务人员分析术后复发的风险性，临床应用价值较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】 To analyze the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in patients with early-stage liver cancer and establish a risk nomogram model. 【Methods】 The clinical data of 100 patients with early-stage liver cancer from January 2016 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors of postoperative recurrence in patients with early-stage liver cancer were analyzed by univariate and logistic multivariate regression, and the risk nomogram model was established. 【Results】 Tumor size( OR=3.747, 95%CI: 1.368～10.262), number of tumor nodules( OR=8.191, 95%CI: 2.378～28.212), vascular tumor thrombus( OR=2.782, 95%CI: 1.105～7.002), vascular invasion( OR=2.710, 95%CI: 0.994～7.393) and liver cirrhosis( OR=5.479, 95%CI:1.681～17.866) were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of early stage liver cancer. Based on the above five independent risk factors, a risk nomogram model was established and bootstrap was performed on the model. The C-index was 0.871(95%CI: 0.845～0.896), indicating that the nomogram model has good accuracy and discrimination. 【Conclusion】 Tumor size,tumor nodule number, vascular tumor thrombus, vascular invasion and liver cirrhosis are independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of patients with early stage liver cancer. The established risk prediction model has good prediction accuracy, which can guide medical staff to analyze the risk of postoperative recurrence, and has high clinical application value.更多还原