【摘要】 采用线性回归、5 a滑动平均、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验以及相关性分析方法,定量分析了1992—2021年莫高窟区域相对湿度变化规律及与气温、降水量、风速的相关关系.结果表明,近30 a相对湿度呈不显著上升趋势,变化速率为1.42%·（10 a）^-1,1997年发生上升突变,总体上相对湿度水平向中等水平移动,并伴随高湿度发生频率增大;相对湿度季节性变化差异显著,除春季呈轻微下降外,其余三季均表现为上升,其中夏季上升速率最大,为2.72%·（10 a）^-1,相应地,夏、秋、冬三季均在1997年左右发生相对湿度上升突变,仅春季相对湿度出现在2001年,较其他3季略滞后;整体上相对湿度与气温、风速呈负相关,与降水量呈正相关,气温是影响相对湿度的首要因素,降水量次之,风速影响最小.这些结果为莫高窟区域气候变化认知及文物劣化风险防控研究提供科学依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 The variation regularity of relative humidity and correlation between relative humidity and temperature,precipitation and wind speed at the Mogao Grottoes from 1992 to 2021 have been quantitatively studied by the linear regression method,five-year moving average method,accumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall method,moving t-test method and correlation analysis method.The results show that the relative humidity presents a non-significant increasing trend at a rate of 1.42%·(10 a)-1 and overall the relative humidity level moves up to intermediate level,with increasing frequency of high relative humidity in the past 30 years.The mutant point of annual mean relative humidity is 1997.Evolution trend of relative humidity varies seasonally.The seasonal mean relative humidity shows a slightly downward trend in spring,obvious increasing trend in summer and non-significant increasing trend in fall and winter.A jump of mean relative humidity in spring,summer,fall and winter occurs in 2001,1997,1998 and 1996 respectively.There is a negative correlation between relative humidity and temperature and wind speed,and a positive correlation between relative humidity and precipitation.Temperature is the chief factor to affect relative humidity,precipitation is the second factor,and wind speed is the third.The conclusion can provide a scientific basis for the cognition of climate change at the Mogao Grottoes and the risk prevention and control research of cultural relics.更多还原