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基于XGBoost和LSTM的台风强度预测模型分析

Analysis of typhoon intensity prediction model base on XGBoost and LSTM

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【作者】 刘峻; 高珊;

【Author】 Liu Jun;Gao Shan;School of Computer and Electronic Information, Guangxi University;Guangxi Meteorological Service Center;

【机构】 广西大学计算机与电子信息学院; 广西壮族自治区气象服务中心;

【摘要】 台风是在温带洋面上生成和发展的热带天气系统,引发的次生灾害具有极大的破坏性,准确估算台风强度是台风预报和灾害预警中极为关键的问题。目前,对台风预报还处于探索研究阶段,对其强度预测仍然是台风预报的难点之一。文章基于极端梯度提升(XGBoost)和长短期记忆(LSTM)模型对台风强度进行了分析与预测。实验结果表明,将XGBoost和LSTM组合应用于台风强度的预测是可行的,有较好的应用价值。

【Abstract】 Typhoon is a tropical weather system generated and developed on the temperate ocean. The secondary disasters caused by typhoon are very destructive. Accurate estimation of typhoon intensity is the very critical problem in typhoon prediction and disaster early warning. Typhoon forecast is still in the stage of exploration and research in the world At present. And typhoon intensity prediction is still one of the difficulties of typhoon forecast. Typhoon intensity is analyzed and predicted based on eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) model in this paper. The experiment results show that it is feasible to apply the XGBoost and LSTM model to the prediction of typhoon intensity and has good application value.

【关键词】 机器学习; LSTM; XGBoost; 台风强度预测;
【Key words】 machine learning; LSTM; XGBoost; typhoon intensity prediction;
【基金】 广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目;项目编号:JGY2022028
  • 【文献出处】 无线互联科技 ,Wireless Internet Technology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2022年06期
  • 【分类号】P457.8
  • 【下载频次】159
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