【摘要】 [目的]研究健康产业系统结构,建立云南健康产业系统模型,对云南健康产业发展进行政策模拟。[方法]基于系统动力学模型,建立健康产业系统关系图和流图,根据云南省2013-2018年健康产业相关历史数据,构建云南健康产业系统动力学模型。[结果]模型对健康产业的模拟值和实际值平均绝对百分误差为4.8%,为精度预测。预测2025年云南健康产业规模可达5695.78亿元。通过模型的政策模拟发现,提高政策影响系数到2,健康产业的产值可以提升98.22亿元。[结论]健康产业系统动力学模型能够较好地模拟和预测云南健康产业发展,通过政策的变化来促进健康产业的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study the structure of health industry system, establish system model of Yunnan health industry, and conduct policies simulation on the development of it. Methods Based on the system dynamics model, establish health industry system relationship diagram and flow diagram, and construct Yunnan health industry system dynamics model based on the historical data of health industry in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2018. Results The model’s average absolute percentage error of simulated and actual values of health industry was 4.8%,which was precision forecast. It predicts that the scale of Yunnan’s health industry will reach 569.578 billion yuan in 2025. Through the policy simulation of the model, it is found that increasing the policy impact coefficient to 2 can increase the output value of the health industry by 9.822 billion yuan. Conclusions The health industry system dynamics model can better simulate and predict the development of health industry of Yunnan, and promote the development of health industry through policy changes.更多还原