【摘要】 研究目的:复杂艰险地区的铁路建设，隧道占比较高且超长深埋隧道众多，面临工程地质复杂、地震频繁强烈、自然灾害频发、施工条件艰难等建设难题，塌方、涌水、岩爆等施工安全事故极易发生。为防范隧道施工事故，建立灰色模糊语言理论的隧道施工风险评估模型，为铁路隧道施工风险管控提供科学合理的方法。研究结论:(1)针对铁路隧道施工过程中的风险因素兼具灰色、模糊性与随机性的特点，在区间不确定语言变量理论基础上给出区间灰色模糊不确定语言变量的概念，建立了灰色模糊语言理论的铁路隧道施工风险评估模型；(2)从“安全、质量、工期、环境”4个属性，考虑自然天气、地质条件、设备维护、风险应对措施等11个影响因子，建立了风险分析层次结构；(3)以某复杂铁路隧道工程施工为例，验证模型的可行性和有效性，工程实例表明地质条件、自然天气等因素对施工影响较大；(4)本文建立的模型能够更全面、更真实地利用专家意见对铁路隧道施工风险因素进行评估，可为复杂铁路隧道风险管控提供科学合理的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research purposes: In the construction of railway in complex and dangerous areas, tunnels account for a relatively high proportion, which is often ultra-long and deep buried, facing construction difficulty such as complex engineering geology, frequent and strong earthquakes, natural disasters and difficult construction conditions. Construction safety accidents such as landslides, water gushing and rock explosion are easy to occur. In order to prevent the tunnel construction accidents, the tunnel construction risk assessment model of the gray fuzzy linguistic theory is established, which provides a scientific and reasonable method for the risk control of the railway tunnel construction.Research conclusions:(1)For the risk factors in the process of railway tunnel construction, which have the characteristics of grey, fuzziness and randomness, the concept of interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic variables is given based on the theory of interval uncertain linguistic variables, and the railway tunnel construction risk assessment model of grey fuzzy linguistic theory is established.(2) From the 4 attributes of "safety, quality, construction period and environment", and 11 influencing factors such as natural weather and geological conditions, the risk analysis hierarchy is established.(3) A complex railway tunnel construction is taken as an example to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. It is shown that geological conditions, natural weather, and other factors have great influence on railway tunnel construction.(4) The model can more comprehensively and truly use expert opinions to assess risk factors for the railway tunnel construction, and provide a scientific and reasonable basis for risk management and control of the complex railway tunnel construction.更多还原