【摘要】 蒸汽腔的上升阶段是双水平井蒸汽辅助重力泄油(Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage,简称SAGD)开发的关键阶段。蒸汽腔的上升速度、时间以及对应的产量是SAGD上升阶段需要关注的重要指标。解析模型是指导SAGD开发的重要理论方法，有利于实现现场SAGD项目的快速设计、评价及综合调整。然而，目前缺乏简单、准确的针对蒸汽腔上升阶段的产量预测解析模型。本文首先根据质量守恒原理和蒸汽腔发育规律，假设蒸汽腔上升阶段的斜坡角度为与油藏参数和操作参数相关的变量，同时考虑油藏渗透率受各向异性影响，建立了双水平井SAGD上升阶段的产量预测模型。然后，综合利用数值模拟方法和正交试验分析方法，确定了蒸汽腔上升阶段的初始斜坡角度和蒸汽腔有效泄油高度系数与油藏参数和操作参数的关系，修正和完善了蒸汽腔上升阶段的产量预测模型。进一步地，结合现场实际，将新模型预测结果与Butler模型预测结果以及现场实际生产数据进行了对比验证。研究结果表明，初始斜坡角度与蒸汽腔有效泄油高度不是常数，而是与油藏参数、操作参数相关的变量。初始斜坡角度越大，蒸汽腔上升至油层顶部所需的时间越短，蒸汽腔上升阶段的产量越大。油藏渗透率越大，渗透率纵横比越大，注汽压力越大，则初始斜坡角度越大，相同时刻的瞬时产油量越大。其影响大小排序为：渗透率纵横比>渗透率>注汽压力。另外，油层厚度越大，则初始斜坡角度越小，蒸汽腔上升至油层顶部所需的时间越短。新模型具有理论简单、计算快、计算结果准确的优势，可以为SAGD开发的快速优化提供理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ramp up stage of the steam chamber is the key stage of the dual horizontal well Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage(SAGD) process. The rising speed, time and the corresponding oil rate are important indexes to be paid attention to in the ramp up stage of the SAGD process. The analytical model is an important theoretical method to guide the development of the SAGD process,which is conducive to the rapid design, evaluation and comprehensive adjustment of SAGD projects in field applications. However,a simple and accurate predictive analytical model for the ramp up stage of the steam chamber is still unavailable. In this study, initially the oil rate prediction model in the ramp up stage of SAGD of double horizontal wells is developed, according to the principle of mass conservation and the understanding of the development of the steam chamber, assuming that the slope angle in the ramp up stage of the steam chamber is a variable related to reservoir parameters and operational parameters, and considering the influence of anisotropy on the reservoir permeability. Then, the initial slope angle and the head availability factor were related to reservoir parameters and operational parameters by combining the numerical simulation method and the orthogonal test analysis method. In this way, the oil rate prediction model for the ramp up stage of the SAGD process was modified and improved. Furthermore, the new model was validated with Butler’s model and field data. The results show that the initial slope angle and the head availability factor of the steam chamber are not constants, but variables related to reservoir parameters and operating parameters. A larger initial slope angle will result in a shorter time required for the steam chamber to reach to the top of the reservoir pay zone, and a greater oil rate in the ramp up stage of the steam chamber. A greater reservoir permeability, a greater vertical to horizontal permeability ratio and a greater steam injection pressure will result in a greater initial slope angle and a greater instantaneous oil rate at the same time. The order of influence is: the vertical to horizontal permeability ratio > permeability > steam injection pressure. In addition, a greater reservoir thickness will lead to a smaller initial slope angle and a shorter time required for the steam chamber to reach to the top of the reservoir pay zone. The new model has the advantages of simple theory, fast calculation and accurate calculation results, which can provide theoretical guidance for rapid optimization of SAGD development.更多还原