【摘要】 【目的】近年来，由于在菏泽市柿绒蚧(Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana)大量发生，造成果品质量下降、减产，为做好有效防治，结合有关资料并进行虫情调查，总结出柿绒蚧发生规律，为预测预报作指导。【方法】选择结果的镜面柿树种，设立2个标准地，每地标记标准株10株，进行常规系统调查。通过调查柿绒蚧生物学特点、年生活史及发生特点与气候、天敌的关系，另通过模拟相关模型并进行校验。【结果】系统建立了发生期、发生量预测数字模型，观测中发现了低温指数、湿雨系数与繁殖速率相互作用，是制约数量变动的主要因素，建立了数字模型及危害标准，预测来年第2代若虫危害高峰的虫口密度及发生程度。经验证，柿绒蚧越冬若虫在柿树展叶期向叶部转移，这个期间是防治该虫的最佳期。第2个防治适期是第1代若虫孵化盛期，与4月下旬气温呈显著相关性，可使用Y=20.582-1.008X回归预测式进行预测，准确率较高。【结论】建立的柿绒蚧预测数字模式有较高的准确度，实现了合理指导防治、有效控制虫口、减轻危害的目的，可推广运用指导于防治生产中去。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】In recent years, Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana occurs in large quantities in Heze city, resulting in the decline of fruit quality and production. In order to do a good job of effective prevention and control, the occurrence regularity of Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana is summarized based on relevant data and insect situation investigation, providing guidance for prediction and prediction. 【Methods】Two standard plots were set up to investigate the resulting mirror persimmon species with 10 standard plants in each plot. The relationship between biological characteristics, annual life history and occurrence characteristics, climate and natural enemies of Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana was investigated, and the relevant models were simulated and verified.【Results】A digital model was established to predict the occurrence period and quantity. It was found that the interaction between low temperature index, wet rain coefficient and reproductive rate was the main factor restricting the change of population. A digital model and harm standard were established to predict the density and occurrence degree of the second generation nympha in the next year. It has been proved that the overwintering nymphes of the Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana migrate to the leaves during the leaf opening period, which is the best period for the control of the insect. The second optimal control period was the first generation nympha incubation period, which was significantly correlated with the temperature in late April. Y= 20.582-1.008 x regression prediction formula was used to predict, with high accuracy.【Conclusion】The established prediction digital model of Acanthococcus kaki Kuwana has high accuracy, realizing the purpose of reasonable control, effective pest control and harm reduction, which can be popularized and applied to control production.更多还原