【摘要】 西北干旱区的水资源短缺问题日益突出，但黑河上游高寒山区河川径流相关的精确水文资料稀缺，开展观测和研究其变化规律尤为必要。选择黑河上游天涝池流域为研究区，通过逐日观测2016年、2017年、2019年生长季河川径流量、降雨量和气温数据，采用相关分析和多元线性回归方法，分析了降雨和气温要素对河川径流的影响。结果表明：生长季内月均径流量明显滞后月均降雨量和月均温，三者均呈现出单峰变化趋势；河川径流对降雨的平均滞后时间约为7.5 d。生长季内月均降雨量、月均温与月均径流量的Pearson相关系数分别为0.69,0.87(p<0.01),拟合多元线性回归模型的R~2为0.772。研究显示该流域内降雨和气温较好地解释河川径流量的变化，结果可为黑河上游山区的河川径流响应过程提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The shortage of water resources in the northwest arid area has become increasingly prominent, but the accurate hydrological data related to river runoff in the alpine mountain area in the upper reaches of Heihe River are scarce, so it is particularly necessary to carry out observations and study the process of change. The Tianlaochi catchment in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin was selected as the study area. The daily river runoff, rainfall and air temperature in the growing season of 2016, 2017 and 2019 were observed. Methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression were used to analyze the effects of two meteorological elements on river runoff. The results show that the monthly average runoff obviously lagged behind the monthly average rainfall and monthly average temperature during the growing season, all of which showed a unimodal change trend, and the average lag time of river runoff to rainfall was 7.5 days; the Pearson correlation coefficients of monthly average rainfall, monthly average temperature and monthly average runoff during the growing season were 0.69 and 0.87(p<0.01), respectively, and R~2 of the fitted multiple linear regression model was 0.772. The study shows that rainfall and temperature could well explain the change of river runoff in this basin, and the research results can provide a reference basis for the river runoff response process in the mountainous area of the upper reaches of Heihe River.更多还原