【摘要】 为提高森林大火巨灾应对能力，利用情景构建理论，研究延庆冬奥赛区外围森林火灾应急管理模式。揭示森林火灾演化机理，构建延庆冬奥赛区外围森林火灾情景，梳理情景应急任务并评估情景应急能力，提出应急准备建议。研究表明：1）森林火灾的演化过程包括事故发生前和事故处置过程中两类典型的时间窗，分别表现为冒烟和火势蔓延在可控范围内；2）延庆冬奥赛区外围森林大火巨灾防控缺失能力包括信息报送、舆情引导、协同配合、林火阻隔、先进装备、复燃监测等6个方面；3）情景应急准备建议包括加强巡护、舆情引导、协同演练、林火阻隔、基础设施、联防联控等6个方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the ability to deal with the huge fire disaster, the forest fire emergency management mode in the periphery of Yanqing Winter Olympic Games Area by using the scenario construction theory was studied. This study revealed the evolution mechanism of forest fire, constructed the forest fire scenario in the periphery of Yanqing Winter Olympic Games Area, sorted out the scenario emergency tasks and assessed the scenario emergency response capability, and put forward emergency preparedness suggestions. The results showed that: 1) The evolution process of forest fire includes two typical time windows before the occurrence of the accident and during the disposal of the accident, which are smoke and fire spreading within the controllable range respectively; 2) The lack of prevention and control capacity of forest fire catastrophe in the periphery of Yanqing Winter Olympic Games area includes six aspects, including information reporting, public opinion guidance, cooperation, forest fire barrier, advanced equipment, and re-burning monitoring; 3) Suggestions for scenario emergency preparedness include six aspects, including strengthening patrol, public opinion guidance,joint drill, forest fire barrier, infrastructure, joint prevention and control.更多还原