【摘要】 人口发展变化趋势是教育政策制定、教育资源配置的基础和前提。把握未来学龄人口的变化趋势、科学配置义务教育阶段资源是基础教育发展中的现实问题，也是促进教育优质均衡发展、提高教育质量水平的重要途径。本文以上海市为例，利用人口普查和统计年鉴等数据，对上海学龄人口数量变化趋势进行了预测。在此基础上分析义务教育阶段资源配置方面存在的主要问题，提出加强五个新城等人口导入重点区域义务教育资源配置、提高城乡义务教育资源配置能级水平、优化义务教育资源配置重点与方式等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The trend of population development is the basis and prerequisite of educational policy-making and educational resource allocation. Getting the direction of school-age population in the future and scientifically allocating resources in the stage of compulsory education is not only a practical problem in the development of foundational education, but also an important pathway to enhance the balanced development and high-quality education. Taking Shanghai as an example, this paper forecasts the trend of school-age population in Shanghai through using the data of census and statistical yearbook. And then this paper analyzes the prominent problems existing in the resource allocation in the stage of compulsory education, and make policy suggestions in terms of strengthening the compulsory education resource allocation in key areas of population importation, such as five new towns,improving the capability of urban and rural compulsory education resource allocation, and optimizing the priorities and methods of compulsory education resource allocation.更多还原