【摘要】 近年来，以大数据为基础的人工智能算法逐步兴起并被用于海洋波浪短期预测。本文采用2015-2019年海南近海逐时波浪实测时序数据，基于Prophet算法建立了海南近海波浪长时段时序预测模型，分析了2015-2019年海南近海波浪日、月、年变化特性，并对海南近海2020年波浪变化过程进行了预测。结果显示，Prophet算法模型对波浪波高和周期的预测值和实测值整体吻合良好，可有效用于长时段波浪的特性分析和时序预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, various artificial intelligence algorithms based on big data have gradually emerged and have been applied in short-term time series wave forecasting. Based on the measured time series data of hourly waves in Hainan offshore from 2015 to 2019, a prediction model for long-term time series waves of Hainan offshore based on Prophet algorithm is established in this paper. The daily, monthly and annual variation characteristics of waves in Hainan offshore from 2015 to 2019 are analyzed, and the waves in Hainan offshore in 2020 are predicted. The results show that the predicted values of wave height and period by prophet algorithm model are in good agreement with the measured values. Prophet algorithm model can be effectively used for long-term wave characteristic analysis and time series prediction.更多还原