【摘要】 台风预报除常规方法外,查找历史相似作为预报和决策的参考依据是常用手段,但从海量历史台风中检索相似费时费力。提出了一种基于改进的视觉几何组模型VGG16的副热带高压(以下简称副高)相似检索方法,进行基于副高相似的历史相似台风查询。通过对1979—2020年台风季19 736个对应时次的副高图像提取、数据增强、模型学习和优化,并以学习感知图像块相似度(learned perceptual image patch similarity,LPIPS)作为副高相似的度量指标,最终建立了改进的VGG16模型。试验结果表明,使用该模型可以找出较为相似的历史台风,模型检索得到的排名第一的历史相似台风与目标台风相似度高达92.55%,该方法可为台风预报业务人员提供了积极参考。同时,该模型相较于传统的人工识别,识别时间较短、检索效率高,可在业务及科研中推广应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Historical similar typhoons are important references for typhoon prediction and decision-making besides conventional methods.However,it is time-consuming and laborious to retrieve similar information from a large number of historical typhoons.In this paper,a similarity retrieval method of subtropical high based on improved visual geometry group model(VGG16) is proposed to query historical similar typhoons based on subtropical high similarity.Through the image extraction,data enhancement,model learning and optimization of 19 736 subtropical high corresponding times in the typhoon season from 1979 to 2020,taking the learned perceptual image patch similarity(LPIPS) as the measurement index of subtropical high similarity,we establish an improved VGG16 model finally.The test results show that greatly similar historical typhoons can be found by using this model.The similarity between the historical similar typhoon ranked first retrieved by this model and the target typhoon is 92.55%, which provides a very meaningful reference for typhoon forecasters.At the same time,compared with the traditional manual recognition,this model takes shorter recognition time and has higher retrieval efficiency,and can be applied in typhoon forecasting and research.更多还原