【摘要】 中国发展农业巨灾保险意义重大。基于改进的前景理论，同时融入间接经验理论，构建了一个新的分析框架，运用河南省滑县301个小麦种植大户的问卷调查和风险态度实验数据，对影响种植大户购买农业巨灾保险意愿的因素进行分析。结果表明，风险态度和间接经验对小麦种植大户农业巨灾保险购买意愿存在影响：风险厌恶程度较高的小麦种植大户更愿意购买农业巨灾保险来避免可能发生的巨灾损失，且风险厌恶程度越高，购买农业巨灾保险的意愿越强；间接经验会导致小麦种植户关于巨灾风险发生概率的判断出现偏差，当小麦种植大户观察到身边的人遭受过巨灾时，其主观巨灾风险发生概率增大，进而增强其购买农业巨灾保险的意愿。此外，小麦收入占总收入比重、政府补贴、农业保险购买经历也对小麦种植大户的农业巨灾保险购买意愿存在影响。面对农业巨灾风险挑战，新型农业经营主体对农业巨灾保险普遍存在需求意愿，相关部门应全面推进试点工作，进一步完善农业巨灾保险体系。从操作层面来看，一方面，农业巨灾保险政策制定需关注新型农业经营主体风险认知水平，以提升农业巨灾保险的针对性、适用性；另一方面，政府可以通过合理的保费补贴来提高新型经营主体购买农业巨灾保险的意愿。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of agricultural catastrophe insurance is of great significance for China.Based on the improved prospect theory and indirect experience theory, a new analytical framework was constructed. Using a new analytical framework combined with questionnaire surveys and experimental data on risk attitudes from 301 large wheat growers in Hua County of Henan province, the factors that affect the intention of large growers to purchase agricultural catastrophe insurance were analyzed. The results showed that risk attitudes and indirect experience have significant impact on insurance purchase intention, large growers with a stronger risk aversion are more likely to buy agricultural catastrophe insurance, and the indirect experience would lead to deviations in the judgements of large wheat growers on the probability of catastrophes. When large wheat growers observe that people around them have suffered catastrophes, their subjective probability of catastrophes would increase, thereby enhancing their purchase intention of agricultural catastrophe insurance. Besides, growers’ purchase intention is also affected by the share of wheat growing income in total income, government premium subsidies and insuring experience. Faced with the challenges of agricultural catastrophe risks, new agricultural business entities have a willingness to purchase agricultural catastrophe insurance, therefore relevant departments should comprehensively promote the pilot work and further improve the agricultural catastrophe insurance system. From an operational perspective, on the one hand, the formulation of agricultural catastrophe insurance policies must pay attention to the risk awareness level of new agricultural business entities to improve the pertinence and applicability of agricultural catastrophe insurance; on the other hand, the government can provide reasonable premium subsidies to improve the willingness of new business entities to purchase agricultural catastrophe insurance.更多还原