【摘要】 在全球气候环境日益严重、我国“双碳”目标的大背景下，实施低碳减排路径迫在眉睫，碳达峰预测有利于推进“双碳”目标的顺利实现.本文综述碳达峰预测的主要方法，碳达峰预测方法主要在因素分解分析基础上进行情景预测，从二氧化碳驱动因素入手，主要讨论指数分解分析法；根据能源系统是否作为独立部门，碳达峰预测方法分为能源系统模型以及宏观经济系统模型；在总结现有碳达峰预测方法的基础上，对今后的工作进行展望，为减排路径决策提供参考.更多还原

【Abstract】 Amid increasingly prominent climate issues and urgent requirements for a low-carbon development, prediction of carbon peak is conducive to the smooth attaining the dual-carbon goal. The main models and methods of carbon peak prediction are reviewed. At present, the prediction method of carbon peak is mainly based on factor decomposition analysis for scenario prediction. Therefore, the exponential decomposition analysis method is discussed from the perspective of the driving factors of carbon emissions. Furthermore, the carbon peak prediction method is divided into macroeconomic system model and energy system model according to whether the energy system is an independent sector. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the existing carbon peak prediction methods, the future work is prospected to cast light on the decision-making of emission reduction path.更多还原