【摘要】 为实现某农场生鲜农产品需求量的精准预测，文章基于Sharply值权重分配法构建ARIMA-SVM组合预测模型，并采用误差分析等方式证明预测方法的可行性、有效性。结果表明：Sharply值组合预测模型克服了ARIMA模型与SVM模型在局部区间内预测精度欠佳的弊端，能够应用于生鲜农产品需求量完整性、可靠性的需求量预测；组合模型的预测结果可以为农场生鲜农产品产销提供理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 To realize the accurate prediction of the demand for fresh agricultural products in a farm, this paper constructs theARIMA-SVM combined prediction model based on the Sharply value weight distribution method, and uses error analysis to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the prediction method.The results show that the Sharply value combination prediction model overcomes the disadvantage of poor prediction accuracy of ARIMA model and SVM model in local interval, and can be applied to the demand prediction of integrity and reliability of fresh agricultural products; the prediction results of the combined model can provide theoretical guidance for the production and marketing of fresh agricultural products on the farm.更多还原